U.S. Open: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats
The U.S. Open is upon us. Who is most likely to win?
🏆 This Week’s Model Favorites
Scottie Scheffler (14.6%)
Rory McIlroy (5.4%)
Jon Rahm (4.9%)
Cameron Young (3.9%)
Ludvig Aberg (3.7%)
I love the U.S. Open. I can’t quite rank it ahead of the Masters, but it’s in the same tier as my favorite major, and I’m super jazzed ahead of Shinnecock.
After a string of some surprising winners on Tour, we get a major with some surprising winners in recent years.
What does it all mean for this week? Let’s see what the data says.
U.S. Open Course Info and Key Stats
Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club Course Info
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,440
Average Fairway Width: 48 yards (via NoLayingUp — very wide)
Green Size: 7,400 square feet (via PGATour — large; around 120% of Tour average)
Greens: Bent/Poa
U.S. Open Key Stats
In Order of Importance
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Major Performance
Especially The Open and U.S. Opens
Shinnecock is a unique venue, and there aren’t really specific stats that stand out because of the different ways you can get around.
In a very helpful tweet, Michael Kim noted generous fairways with some lucky/unlucky landing spots when missing fairways. He also mentioned that, while the greens were large, they play small due to the runoffs, and that the greens are bumpy.
That’s why I’m getting a little emphasis on around-the-green play. If missed greens are common and bumpy putts linger, getting it close with wedges could be an advantage.
U.S. Open Past Results
Here’s a look at every golfer’s total strokes gained data over the last five U.S. Opens. (Note: I’m visualizing strokes gained by year rather than finishing positions.)
U.S. Open Win Probability Simulation Model
I’ve simulated the U.S. Open 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.
Here are the results.
The Shortlist: Names I’m On
Scottie Scheffler
I mentioned it with my early leans this week that I was considering Scottie Scheffler, and well, I’m there. The win simulation model, as expected, views him as the favorite, but we are getting decent numbers on him for a change because he hasn’t won in a while.
Scheffler is, by far, the best golfer in the field in terms of my short-term model, which uses splits when stats stabilize. I think we’re starting to view him as the same tier of player of late as Rory McIlroy and others, and it’s just not the case, mathematically.
No, he’s not in the 25.0% win odds range. But the odds don’t require that.
The simulation model is rating him out in the +585 range, and there are numbers better than that out there, specifically a +650 at bet365.
Best Number I See: +650 at bet365
Ludvig Aberg
Another name I was on yesterday and am glad I am is Ludvig Aberg.
Ludvig is coming off a terrible tournament from an around-the-green standpoint but is really making that a strength of his game. That, then, pairs with improved ball-striking. Over everyone’s last 50 rounds, Aberg is fourth in ball-striking among qualified golfers, and he’s also 38th in around-the-green play.
Aberg has also seen better putting splits since an equipment change.
Best Number I See: +2600 at DraftKings
Brooks Koepka
Another caveat here, as I mentioned yesterday: I bet Brooks a few weeks ago, and he just withdrew due to a hand injury.
If healthy, we’re looking at a top-30 ball-striker with elite major pedigree and improving putting, but his ball-striking hasn’t been as sticky as I’d have hoped when I bet him weeks ago.
I don’t think I’d bet him until at least 50/1 if I had to do it all over again.
Best Number I See: +4500 at bet365
Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton and Ludvig were my two new bets on Monday, and since then, Hatton’s odds have shortened a bit.
At his last major (the PGA Championship), he missed the cut due to poor short game but great ball-striking. Earlier this year, he finished T3 at the Masters.
Hatton won at LIV Andalucia in his most recent start, and he’s no stranger to getting in the mix at tough setups. He was T4 at last year’s U.S. Open and finished T6 at Shinnecock in 2018.
I really like his around-the-green game, and if putting gets a little neutralized this week due to the greens, then Hatton should benefit.
Best Number I See: +4400 at DraftKings
Book-Specific Values and Finishing Position Bets
Russell Henley
Russell Henley is a really good U.S. Open player, finishing top 27 in five of his last six starts and T14 or better in three straight. That includes a T25 here at Shinnecock in 2018.
Henley has typically gained off the tee by being accurate, gained from approach play (his usual strength), and gained around the green in tough conditions. I like that.
The model has him around +3900
Best Number I See:
To Win: +4000 at BetMGM
Top 10: +355 at DraftKings
J.J. Spaun
Last year’s champ, J.J. Spaun, has his tee-to-green game on point and just needs to figure out the putter. Over everyone’s last 50 rounds, Spaun ranks eighth in tee-to-green play.
Best Number I See:
Top 10: +510 at DraftKings
Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay has played U.S. Opens pretty well in the past, too. He MC’d last year but was top-15 in four straight before that, and he did play here in 2018 (T45).
Cantlay’s irons are in good shape right now, and he’s a great around-the-green player.
Best Number I See:
Top 10: +470 at FanDuel
Alex Fitzpatrick
I’m surprised the model was a little lower than I am on Matt Fitzpatrick, but it is what it is, and we can still look to the family for a top-20.
Alex Fitzpatrick ranks 17th in the field in tee-to-green over everyone’s last 50 rounds, and he’s 14th in ball-striking. There’s value on him at a top-20 at some books.
Best Number I See:
Top 20: +320 at bet365